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Friday, 2 January 2009

Economic outlook 2009 - many different view points


An article released yesterday in the Financial Times shows the extent of the economic uncertainty that exists at the moment.

The paper sent a survey to leading UK economists asking broad questions about the outlook for the economy, employment, house prices, government spending etc.

The paper printed the responses from the various experts, and in typical economist fashion they came up with very different views for the economy.

For example, when asked whether 2009 would show the first "green shoots" of recovery in the economy, there was an almost even split between those answering yes and those answering no. Looking closer at the responses given the reasons for the responses were also very different.

Often the survey also seemed to suggest different interpretations of various economic terms led to different survey responses. For example, some respondents defined economic recovery as recording positive growth and others thought it meant seeing a return of trend growth. These are significantly different with the later being much harder to achieve.

This article has helped to confirm that we are entering a very uncertain time. I remain hopeful that we will see the first signs of recovery before the end of the year, but so much could happen to put this out of reach.

You may have to register with the FT web site (for free) but its worth having a read of this article.

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posted by Carl Malways at

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