Some of the third quarter figures from the United Kingdom and the United States looked fairly positive. In particular the employment and the GDP growth figures looked pretty good without any real sign of the current credit crisis having a wider impact on the wider economy. However, don't be fooled the downturn is coming in both the UK and the US and very likely in the EU.

Early data from Q4 suggest that activity in both manufacturing and services has been slowing down in recent months. The view on the high street is that the consumer is losing confidence and are more than likely to put the breaks on spending - particularly as they have few savings to cover them over the slowdown.

The financial sector is far from over the worst of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, with a number of big banks still to declare just how much exposure they have had. This sector should expect more bad news, job losses and a much reduced pool for the Christmas bonus period.

The housing market is unlikely to see significant price falls at a national level but certain locations will see prices drop.

Therefore get prepared for next year, people will be losing jobs, wage growth will come under pressure and nothing will feel as secure. Make sure you shine and work and that your boss understands that to lose you to save money in a downturn is a bad move over the longer term. Things should get back to normal come the end of 2008, don't get stung in the meantime.