It came as no surprise yesterday that the UK is now officially in a recession. With the economy shrinking in the third quarter of the year, the economy certainly hadn't improved in the final three months of the year. The economy contracted by 1.5% in the final quarter of the year, having shrank 0.6% in the third quarter.

These figures confirmed that despite the government's attempts to stimulate the economy through measures such as a cut to VAT and capital injections into the banks, and the Bank of England's historic interest rate cuts, the economy shrank at an accelerated pace.

Like the USA, Japan and the eurozone, which were confirmed as in recession at the end of the third quarter, the UK is now officially in recession, and is unlikely to emerge from recession for some time.

Historically recessions tend to last about fifteen months, but given the global nature of this recession and the severity of the economic imbalances in the UK this recession could last longer. It will almost certainly be longer before the UK returns to its natural rate of economic growth (approximately 2.5% per annum).

Given that the USA is further through its recessionary cycle than other economies, it is likely that they will emerge from their recession before other parts of the world. The country also has the capacity to spend its way out of this recession. Given the massive fiscal stimulus planned by the new Obama administration, this could pull the US out of recession by the middle of 2009.

Increased optimism following the election of President Obama should also help to stimulate the economy as consumers feel positive enough to spend and businesses prepare for an upturn. This break from the old could have a significant impact on the economy.

The eurozone and Japan are likely to follow the United States. Once the US starts to grow again global demand and global confidence is likely to improve. Japan and eurozone countries like Germany rely heavily upon exports and therefore global demand is fundamental in their economic revival.

These countries also benefit from having less consumer debt and fewer economic imbalances (e.g. house price over valuation) than countries such as the UK and USA. Therefore the downwards economic cycle should have less corrections to make before stability returns. Less personal debt and higher savings will mean that consumers in places such as France and Germany will be able to benefit from falling prices, prompting an increase in consumption that will aid the recovery.

The UK is likely to be one of the last developed countries to come out of the global downturn. It faces a number of problems that will prolong the correction in the economy. For one the UK economy relies heavily upon global finance as a proportion of GDP and as an employer. Therefore with this sector in chaos the economy has been hit hard.

Secondly UK households do not have a massive amount of savings to protect themselves through the economic slowdown. Having spent heavily and saved little in previous years the UK consumer is likely to sharply cut consumption in order to build up protective savings. This will reduce retail spending, a key part of the economy.

Third, with the UK government attempting to support the banking sector it has built up a massive debt. Like the UK consumer the British government did not save in the good years and therefore does not have a surplus available to add much extra stimulus to the economy.

Finally, UK house prices were some of the most over valued in the developed world and as a result will need to fall further than in other countries. This will again weigh on consumer confidence and will also hit bank balance sheets.

This is not to say that the UK will be in permanent decline. The rapid weakening of the pound will stimulate exports from the UK. This will take some time to occur as the world economy slows and as international importers adjust their supply chain to the UK.

The UK also benefits from a highly skilled and flexible labour market. Unlike some European countries the UK's labour laws encourage the use of temporary workers and place less barriers to employment. They also allow employees to be sacked or made redundant more easily. Although not a great thing if you are one of the people losing their job, but it will mean that British businesses can reorganise and cut costs more quickly and cheaply than other countries.

Finally the Bank of England has cut interest rates quickly and will continue to cut to near zero. Along with quantitative easing ("printing money") this will act as a further stimulus.

In all these countries, particularly the USA and the UK, the way out of recession will require the banking system to move back to some sense of normality. This is not going to be easy and could be some way off. Without it though, businesses will continue to be unable to borrow and therefore invest and consumers will be unable to get mortgages or loans to buy houses, consumer or start entrepreneurial activities.

So as it stands here are my forecasts for when recession will end (i.e. first quarter of positive growth):

USA - Q3 2009

eurozone - Q4 2009

Japan - Q4 2009

UK - Q1 2010

The British Chamber of Commerce has asked the UK government to keep the national minimum wage on hold in 2009 to help businesses to cope with the current economic downturn.

Whether the government keeps the minimum wage on hold or not will not stop wages in the private sector remaining on hold or falling in 2009.

Some businesses, particularly those in the financial sector, have already started to cut wages. In this sector salary cuts of between ten and twenty per cent throughout the company won't be too unusual.

But pay freezes and pay cuts of a smaller magnitude should be expected across all sectors apart from the public sector. Given that those in work receiving the pay cuts will be paying for these public sector pay rises, there may be increased calls for the public sector to also cut back on staff or salaries.

A pay cut may seem like a terrible burden and terribly unfair. Nevertheless, this should be seen as a good thing. In previous years when unions were stronger and labour markets less flexible a pay cut would have been unheard of. As a result some companies were either forced to cut jobs or go out of business.

The ability to cut wages instead of cutting jobs will help to keep businesses going and people in work. These people will be able to retain and grow their skills whilst at work instead of stagnating. Businesses will not have to face the costly burden of redundancy and rehiring and they will have the available staff to take advantage of opportunities that arise. The government will have less unemployment benefits to pay.

A flexible labour market is one of the greatest assets that the UK and US economies have and will be one of the things that will help to pull the economy out of recession and see higher growth over the long term.

It is best to look at this way...what would you rather a twenty per cent pay cut or no job at all?